To cause a recession, short-term interest rates need to be much higher. Despite the Federal Reserve's rate-raising, the inflation-friendly, easy-money environment is still in place. Here is the ...

S taggering under the weight of bloated government spending and deficits, the U.S. economy has steadily weakened during the Biden administration. As shown in the chart below, growth slid from 12.5 ...

It should be noted, however, that this recession indicator has flashed above 70% two other times since the yield curve first became inverted in October 2022, and the U.S. has not gone into a ...

A highly accurate recession indicator is flashing the same warning it did prior to the 2001, 2008, and 2020 recessions, David Rosenberg said. Business Insider Subscribe Newsletters ...

The second chart showed the risk of recession based on short-term Treasury spreads is about 100% - greater than during the dot-com and housing bubbles, and the highest level since the 1980s.

So recession-watchers have developed rules of thumb. Many now indicate trouble for America. Best-known is the Sahm Rule (see chart 1), which was triggered earlier this month.