The top 20 S&P 500 companies accounted for 52.3% of Q2 2024 buybacks, an increase from Q1 2024’s 50.9%, and above the historical average of 47.5% and the pre-COVID historical average of 44.5%.

Let’s start with the historical perspective. Most of the time the stock market has earned positive returns Figure 1 in the chart below shows the annual return in the S&P 500 since 1926 ...

The top 20 S&P 500 companies accounted for 53.2% of Q3 2024 buybacks, a marginal rise from Q2 2024’s 52.3% and above the historical average of 47.6% and the pre-COVID historical average of 44.5%.

But that does not necessarily mean the S&P 500 will be down one year from now, nor does it mean the index will be down three years from now. The chart below shows the range of historical outcomes ...

The S&P 500 gained more than 20% for the second year in a row in 2024, the first time that's happened since the late 1990s. The index has carved out a head and shoulders pattern, a classic chart ...